A race to the bottom
If banks are the race horse, the Reserve Banks the jockey.
While banks are chomping at the bit to bring interest rates down with some active competitive easing out there … the Reserve Bank (RBNZ), on the other hand, is saying ‘whoa, steady up there ol’ boy’, with a firm hand on the reins to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at a steady pace to ease the economy back into form while inflation abates, net migration calms down and we get back to a sustainable operating pace with inflation back around 2 - 3% being the main factor, its currently at 4.6% having come off its rampant highs of 7.6% in 2022.
So once we start getting results there we’ll start seeing the jockey give the horse a bit more rein, the OCR dialled back and interest rates follow and while there might be tweaks later in the year, it’ll take about a year for any real easing in interest rates to 18 months when we start to really see some useful results and we can race to the finish line around the end of 2025 and be done with this particular phase in the cycle and the end of the race.
So at the moment, the RBNZ is winning the race while pulling back on the reins to let the rest of the field catch up so we can all come in together. AND THEN … we’re back on track for some economic growth in a sustainable manner and crack on from there at a steady gallop rather than the steeplechase we’ve been through … with all being well in the world.